ET 500 · FCO → IAD

took off 6:09 AM CEST · expected to land 9:27 AM ET (scheduled 5:20 AM CEST → 10:50 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 500 · FCO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?