Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 516 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

ET 516 · LFW → IAD

departs 12:35 PM GMT · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ LFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 516 · LFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?