F8 1848 · YVR → SFO

departs 3:30 PM PDT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F8 1848 · YVR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?