F9 1028 · FLL → BWI

departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 1:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BWI (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.8 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1028 · FLL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?