F9 1106 · PDX → LAS

departs 12:17 PM PT · arrives 2:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1106 · PDX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?