F9 1707 · MSY → LAS

departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:01 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±8 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling11,429 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1707 · MSY → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?