Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
F9 2634 · ATL → BWI
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.