Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 2638 · SFO → PHX
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.