Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
F9 3274 · MCO → BWI
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:54 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.