Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 3624 · CVG → MCO
departs 7:52 AM ET · arrives 10:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at CVG that day
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.06 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.