F9 3663 · BWI → MCO

departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility1.2 mi Precip0.35 in

MCO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3663 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?