Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 3768 · MCO → RIC
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/15 27%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.