Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 3990 · DFW → DTW
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 9:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 31%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.