Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
F9 4003 · BWI → MCO
departs 9:38 PM ET · arrives 12:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.