Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 4145 · MCO → LAX
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.