Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 4170 · MCO → PHL
departs 3:53 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/15 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.