Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
F9 4401 · LAS → SFO
departs 11:11 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14 32%
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.