F9 4427 · BWI → ATL

departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 12:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility1.53333 mi Precip0.35 in

ATL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4427 · BWI → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?