F9 4505 · MCI → LAS

departs 12:51 PM CT · arrives 2:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4505 · MCI → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?