F9 4559 · IAD → DFW

departs 12:27 PM ET · arrives 2:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.24 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4559 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?