Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 4731 · JFK → ATL
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.