Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
G4 1715 · FAT → LAS
departs 12:05 AM PT · arrives 1:32 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.