G4 3056 · PHL → TYS

took off 7:38 PM ET · expected to land 8:54 PM ET (scheduled 7:31 PM ET → 9:23 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

TYS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3056 · PHL → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?