G4 81 · LAS → MOT

took off 7:27 AM PT · landed 11:37 AM CT (scheduled 7:10 AM PT → 11:52 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MOT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MOT that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MOT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MOT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 81 · LAS → MOT

Odds over time

How late did it get to MOT?