G7 4459 · YOW → IAD

took off 10:08 AM EDT · landed 11:21 AM ET (scheduled 10:00 AM EDT → 11:46 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at YOW that day

↑ G7's recent on-time record

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YOW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4459 · YOW → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?