G7 4461 · CVG → IAD

departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:28 PM ET

Your aircraft is N509GJ (CRJ7), coming in as G7 4415 from IAD: in the air, landing about 2:08 PM ET, 40 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.06 mi forecast at CVG that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4461 · CVG → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?