G7 4476 · IAD → BUF

departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM ET

Your aircraft is N511GJ (CRJ7), coming in as G7 4574 from DTW: landed 9:17 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ G7's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.40 in

BUF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4476 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?