Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
G7 4586 · IAD → DTW
departs 5:27 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DTW that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.