Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
IB 211 · MAD → JFK
departs 12:58 PM CEST · arrives 3:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.