IB 339 · MAD → MCO

took off 4:58 PM CEST · expected to land 8:09 PM ET (scheduled 4:30 PM CEST → 8:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

IB 339 · MAD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?