Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 346
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
IB 346 · BOS → MAD
departs 9:33 PM ET · arrives 11:14 AM CEST
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Arrivals into MAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.