JL 5 · JFK → HND

departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM JST

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at HND more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HND?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at JFK that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HND

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.14 in

HND (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 5 · JFK → HND

Odds over time

How late will it get to HND?