KL 207 · AMS → JFK

departs 3:00 PM CEST · arrives 5:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 207 · AMS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?