KL 225 · AMS → IAD

departs 1:16 PM CEST · arrives 4:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 225 · AMS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?