KX 793 · JFK → GCM

departs 11:52 AM ET · arrives 2:50 PM EST

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at GCM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GCM?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Arrivals into GCM at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

GCM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KX 793 · JFK → GCM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GCM?