Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
LH 417 · IAD → FRA
departs 3:34 PM ET · arrives 5:05 AM CEST
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.