LO 2081 · RZE → EWR

took off 2:04 PM CEST · expected to land 4:51 PM ET (scheduled 1:45 PM CEST → 4:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RZE

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RZE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 2081 · RZE → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?