Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 3426 · BFL → PHX
departs 10:07 AM PT · arrives 11:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
BFL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.