MQ 3426 · PHX → BFL

took off 8:12 AM MT · expected to land 9:19 AM PT (scheduled 7:39 AM MT → 9:15 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BFL?

LIVE

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BFL is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BFL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BFL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3426 · PHX → BFL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BFL?