Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 3577 · CVG → ORD
departs 8:53 AM ET · arrives 9:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at CVG that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.