Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3581 · GRR → ORD
departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 6:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.