Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3621 · EVV → ORD
departs 6:56 AM CT · arrives 8:33 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EVV that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EVV (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.