Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3828 · EVV → DFW
departs 6:54 AM CT · arrives 9:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EVV that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EVV (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.