Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3830 · PHX → OMA
departs 8:54 AM MT · arrives 1:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.