Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 9865 · DFW → GNV
departs 8:46 AM CT · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12
Odds over time
Arrive at GNV more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GNV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GNV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GNV?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GNV (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.