MX 1848 · PVD → MCO

departs 6:09 AM ET · arrives 9:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PVD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MX's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PVD are usually not late

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.41 in

MCO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1848 · PVD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?