OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

took off 10:32 PM ET · expected to land 11:47 PM CT (scheduled 8:50 PM ET → 10:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
88%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DSM that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

DSM (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?