OH 5616 · YUL → PHL

departs 4:19 PM EDT · arrives 6:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5616 · YUL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?