OO 3122 · LAX → MZT

departs 10:46 AM PT · arrives 1:42 PM MST

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MZT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MZT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into MZT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,214 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

MZT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3122 · LAX → MZT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MZT?