OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

departs 11:43 AM PT · arrives 1:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?